Author Archives: kevin

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How to mislead with graphs: Verizon edition

You’ve probably seen the new Verizon commercials demonstrating that their 3G network is so much bigger than AT&T’s 3G network:

Nathan at FlowingData has a good post up about the differences. Obviously the Verizon 3G map covers more surface area, but that doesn’t translate to better coverage, because I spend most of my time in Claremont and the Bay Area, and little time in North Dakota. Here’s a map showing the population density in the USA:

I would guess that the AT&T map covers all of the major cities, where almost all of the people who use 3G live. Rural people aren’t going to have a very high demand for 3G coverage, so it doesn’t make much sense to cover them, or for 3G users to judge a company’s service based on how much rural area it covers. Verizon’s coverage probably is better than AT&T’s, but their ad campaign is not a good way to demonstrate that.

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Links for today

Sign of the apocalypse: Test prep for 3 year olds. Website: Mystery Google, which returns the query that the person before you searched for. Some people are using it to send messages. Wonky: How accurate can NFL prediction algorithms get? Answer: As the distribution of wins and losses is indistinguishable from a schedule in which 52% of the games are determined by sheer luck, the best anyone can do is predict 76% of games correctly. Video: Deer finds water, gets very excited.

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Jerking: the new dance move I might attempt at 2 am on Saturday

The NYT has a front-page profile of "jerking," the new dance move that originated in LA and is now 'sweeping the nation.' Here's the requisite video: The photos are great but as usual, the NYT's attempts at chronicling youth fashion are hilarious. No one explains cool better than a dance historian:
Seen in formal terms, said Sally Sommer, a dance historian who teaches at Florida State University, jerking may merely be a cousin to the “lambada or the twist.” It is certainly, Ms. Sommer said, less physically demanding than krumping or vogueing or the other highly skilled and innovative urban forms of dance. But the lambada was a fad. The twist was a fad. And jerking, its adherents say, has a cultural resonance that goes beyond the Reject and the Tippy Toe.
They go on to quote a music video director, the music editor of LA Weekly and one of the stars of the jerking movement. Maybe they should realize the irony inherent in trying to describe the new cool movement to a nationwide audience.

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Will our best works of art survive for 2500 years?

CM: Well, I don't know what of our culture is going to survive, or if we survive. If you look at the Greek plays, they're really good. And there's just a handful of them. Well, how good would they be if there were 2,500 of them? But that's the future looking back at us. Anything you can think of, there's going to be millions of them. Just the sheer number of things will devalue them. I don't care whether it's art, literature, poetry or drama, whatever. The sheer volume of it will wash it out. I mean, if you had thousands of Greek plays to read, would they be that good? I don't think so. CM: This is just entry level to what's coming. Just the appalling volume of artifacts will erase all meaning that they could ever possibly have. But we probably won't get that far anyway.
There are two questions here: 1) If someone writes the next "Oedipus Rex," will we notice? and 2) Will our generation's best work survive? Unlike Mr. McCarthy, I think the answer to both questions is yes. Popular works of art follow a power law; the best known pieces are viewed exponentially more often than the least popular ones. People want to share and discuss things they've seen, and (some of them) want to try and view the best works of art our culture is producing. Many people have their ears to the ground, filtering out the best material from the noise. The chances of generating 7 excellent works out of 10,000 are much higher than the chances of generating 3 excellent works out of 100; even if we only recognize four of the seven, we're still better off. We'll have more high-quality works of art and continue to do so as the population keeps expanding and the cost of spreading information is low. We tell stories as a way of preserving our culture; the book of Genesis was passed down orally for thousands of years before it was written down by anyone. I don't think that our stories will vanish or get lost in the haze. The works of art we're generating today have a much greater chance of surviving than the works of the Greeks, because they're stored in so many different places. Sure, there's a reputation effect; relatives of famous artists, and people who have already done something good will get their work noticed by a lot of people, even if it's not very good. But the probability you'll tell a friend about some movie you saw increases with its quality. Works of art that withstand the test of time must be very good, and remain relevant even when our lifestyles have changed beyond recognition. We also have crude rating systems; reviews and Top 100 lists will give future historians a place to start. Perhaps we won't recognize "Oedipus Rex" right when it's published, but as long as it's accessible by future generations, someone will find it. I'm encouraged by the rise of some artists long after their career has finished, such as Nick Drake or James Joyce.

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An attempt to quantify my mood: the Kevin Burke Happiness Score

Here's an estimate. These are in no particular order. Baseline: Is it November through February? Yes: -5 points No: 0 points Am I in Claremont or Philadelphia on a Friday, Saturday or Sunday? Yes: -5 points No: 0 points Am I in a foreign country? Yes: +10 points No: 0 points Is the sun currently shining? Yes: +2 points No: 0 points Am I dating? Yes: +10 points No: 0 points Actions which reflect my mood: Did I sleep 10+ hours the night before? Yes: -10 points No: 0 points Where did I sleep last night? Bed: 0 points Couch: -7 points Public Place: -30 points How many times did I hit the snooze button? None - hopped right out: +20 points 1-4 times: 0 points At least an hour: -15 points Am I appropriately dressed? Yes: +5 points No: -5 points Is my RSS reader empty? Yes: -10 points No: 0 points Do my friends know where I am? Yes: 0 points No: -10 points Did I skip breakfast? Yes: -15 points No: 0 points Did I finish my homework? Yes: 0 points No: -8 points Where and with whom did I eat? Alone: -15 points for each With friends: +10 points for each New restaurant: +10 points Events which change my mood: Have I exercised today? Yes: +15 points No: 0 points Have I talked on the phone for more than 20 minutes today? Yes: -10 points No: 0 points What am I listening to? New song: +10 points Whatever's stuck in my head: +5 points Old song: +3 points Nothing: -3 points Have I competed in a game today (board game or real life)? Yes: +8 points No: 0 points How many people are standing around? 1 other person I don't know that well: +15 points Up to 6 people, all of whom are close friends or family: +5 points per person 2 or more people, at least some of whom are not close friends: -5 points per person Did I receive any gold stars: an honest compliment, an unexpected text message, an invitation, or a good test/essay grade? Yes: +15 points No: 0 points How many drinks have I had today? None: 0 points 1-3: +5 points 4 or more: -10 points Did I get into a flow today? Computer code: +5 points per hour Blogging: +3 points Score: 60+ points: You are currently conversing with one happy dude. 20 to 60 points: I am in a pretty good mood. -20 to 20 points: Average day. -60 to -20 points: I could use a pick me up, but left alone I'll bounce back tomorrow or within a few hours. Worse than -50 points: Houston, we have a problem.

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Sign of the times

'Only one movie on the [top 20 grossing in the 2000's] list was made from an original screenplay: Finding Nemo...the rest are all sequels or adapted from books, TV shows, amusement park rides, etc. Out of the top 50, only ten are not franchise films." Via Kottke.

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Nelson Lichtenstein

I saw Mr. Lichtenstein the other night at the Ath. Liechtenstein wrote a book on Walmart slamming the company for their labor policies, low wages and more. For someone who spent so long around the company that's perhaps taken more advantage of global economics than any other, I was a little surprised to see that he himself did not have a firm grasp on economics. Yes, Walmart pays it workers low wages, and yes, they have probably done some things in the past that they shouldn't be too proud of. But if they paid their workers more, they'd either employ fewer workers or they would have higher prices. When we look at a company like McDonalds, it's very clear that the workers there are going to be paid really horrible salaries, because the whole point of fast food is to deliver cheap, good food. That's why people go there. And while the wages are low, and my dad used to point to the McDonalds workers as examples of jobs I could get if I didn't work hard in school, not very many people think that this is a gross injustice. If McDonalds paid more for workers, Big Macs would cost more, or people would have to wait longer for their food because they would be hiring less workers. Either of these things would shift more business to Burger King or In n Out. Well Walmart is like a retail McDonalds. The reason they have such good sales is because they have the lowest prices in the business. They focus relentlessly on cutting costs and passing most of those savings to the consumer. I got used to Target's prices, and then I went to Walmart the other day and their prices are way lower than Target's. Holy cow. My guess is that you can't have absurdly low prices and pay the workers a 'decent' amount. On the flipside, low prices leave all Americans better off, including Walmart workers and especially poor people, who have to spend less of their income on consumer goods because everything's so damn cheap. Furthermore, Walmart's success has enabled it to flourish and employ over 1 million employees in the United States. The pay might be crappy for those workers but it's better than no job. Also if a Walmart employee doesn't like their job they are free to leave, and many do. Sure they may occasionally work overtime for no pay, but if there was a better opportunity for them in the market, besides unemployment, they would take it. Low wages aren't extortion, they're a sign of the market clearing price for a job that isn't too difficult. Is there an equilibrium where Walmart pays a smaller number of workers higher wages, with less turnover, like at Costco? Maybe. My guess is that Walmart would move there if it could, and keep the same low prices and level of service.

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Drinking

I have a new post up at CMCForum about how the school's attempts to cut down on the amount students drink will probably fail. I used some ideas from evolutionary biology and sociology to get to the punchline. The reaction is more or less what I expected; most people reading the article haven't heard that kind of an argument before. Moreover it's not really very nice to imply that people are all competing with each other, and some people have higher status than others. Hopefully I've made at least a few people think.

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