Author Archives: kevin

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Random Thought on Intersections

If there are no cars at an intersection the light should be red in every direction. Then when a car approaches it can quickly change to green in that direction. If it's green in one direction and someone approaches from the perpendicular, the light has to go through yellow (or until the WALK sign is finished) and the car has to slow down before the light changes. This signal arrangement saves drivers gasoline.

On a related note, signal coordination in urban areas (timing the green lights to ensure the best traffic flow) can lead to significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This solution is not very sexy or expensive, and the results aren't obvious, which is why more cities don't do it.

Technorati: you don't have to put on the red light

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Are corporations rent-seekers in irrationality?

I've been reading Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational, which says among other things that our preferences, spending habits, and performance on simple tasks are arbitrary and thus easily manipulated. For example, we prefer something when we're presented with a slightly inferior version of the same product, even if we wouldn't be interested in the product otherwise. Or, pricier medicine is more effective than cheap medicine. Corporations take advantage of our irrationality to sell us overpriced things, create demand where none existed and convince us we are having a good time. They are, in a sense, seeking rent and profiting from our irrationality. When humans lived in hunter-gatherer tribes, corporations didn't exist - we didn't have to deal with high-pressure sales pitches, budgets, or people we didn't know. Biologically, our brains aren't well prepared to deal with their tactics. So I don't doubt that companies peddle in our irrationality. That's not to say that corporations are evil; often times companies provide us with valuable time-saving services, or at the least convince us that we're having a good time, or value the product they pitch more than the money in our pocket. Has irrationality served us well? As we become more aware of our flaws, will we strive to be more rational? If we become more rational, corporations won't be as able to lure us in with a promise of free stuff, or brand loyalty, or price premiums. I think women will always be irrational; it's more important for them to consume conspicuously, live luxuriously, and show off when they can. As long as this is true, corporations will exist to define luxury, create demand for scarce, expensive products products (such as black pearls) and find ways for us to spend our money.

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New Year’s Resolutions

I have a few New Year's Resolutions but I would rather not commit to something that I'm not going to stick with, like the 80% of resolutions that are abandoned by February. If I have a resolution I'll make it binding with a bet or stickk.com

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Is Wikipedia being fully honest about its fundraising needs?

Any recent visitor to Wikipedia will notice the banner with a plea from Jimmy Wales for more money to run the Wikimedia Foundation. However, a look at Wikimedia's financial statements reveals they are doing just fine. Wales is asking for $6 million.

Last year, Wikimedia raised over $5 million in contributions and donations. Their expenses were about $3.5 million (the main cost is salary: $1.15 million was paid to 23 employees, averaging $50,000; operating costs are $950,000 and hosting is $540,000). This resulted in a $1.5 million increase in net assets. At the end of the fiscal year, Wikimedia had almost $3 million in cash on hand. Furthermore, the notes reveal that Wikipedia has secured a $3 million donation from the Sloan Foundation, of which they are waiting to receive $2 million. I'm not any kind of accounting expert but they seem to be in excellent financial shape.

So this "personal appeal" from Wales seems misleading.

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Theory of gift-giving

There are three types of gifts: Things, Experiences, and Sentiments (obviously gifts can combine two of these types). The primary purpose of a gift is to signal that the giver paid some cost, in cash, time, or consideration, to give the gift. It's a signal of friendship or appreciation.

There are 4 ways to spend money: 1) Spend your money on yourself: you care about price and value. 2) Spend other people's money on yourself: you care about value but not about price. 3) Spend your money on other people: you care about price, but not their value. 4) Spend other people's money on other people (government): you care about neither price nor value. Giving a gift implies you care about the price but not the benefit the person gets from the gift, as the price is the main signal. We've all received rotten gifts, and this scenario is serviceable but not optimal. The best gifts are valuable to the recipient, but this usually isn't the giver's primary concern.

Things: These are the cheapest gifts - the cheapest in terms of time and consideration. In my experience they're the least likely to be valuable to the recipient. A bad "thing" gift must be avoided at all costs - it costs the giver and has no value to the recipient, beyond the price signal.

The acceptability of cash or gift cards as gifts varies inversely with knowledge of the recipient's preferences and spending habits. If my best friend gave me $20 for my birthday, I'd be pretty disappointed, because he knows the sort of things I spend money on - the cash gift represents a lack of care. On the other hand, I would gladly take $20 from my grandpa because he's likely to buy something I would value less than $20. On a related note, here's a site showing the relation between gift cards and cash.

Experiences: Happiness research has shown that experiences tend to make people happier than things (the "high" from new things wears off rather quickly, and you have more clutter). It's hard to go wrong giving this gift, although it's usually most expensive type of gift.

Sentiment: These giftsare generally cheap but carry a high benefit to the recipient. Things like a photo album/framed photo, a hat or socks you knitted, or a long letter are excellent gifts with value for the recipient.

Unexpected gifts can be good gifts. I am thinking of gifts given with an eye at broadening the recipient's horizons (something they wouldn't buy for themselves, but you know the benefit). Examples are books given with an eye on exposing the recipient to a new way of seeing the world, or products that would save the recipient time or improve their life in some way. These are risky gifts but the potential benefit is large.

Unique gifts are better than replicable gifts. Few people give gasoline.

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Expanding Highways: A Great “Green” Project

The Washington Post has an article today about some people trying to get Obama to spend stimulus money on "green-collar jobs," defined in the article as new wind grids, solar farms, or clean-water projects, as opposed to traditional highway funding. I think this is a bad idea.

Congestion is a huge pollutant. Our nation's highways are more congested than ever, and when cars are stuck in traffic they idle and pollute. Furthermore, congestion wastes drivers' time.

Carpool lanes are designed to provide an incentive to share rides and limit congestion. However, these lanes often add to total congestion and pollution by forcing four lanes' worth of traffic into three.

An excellent solution to the congestion problem would be to raise the price of gasoline. When gas reached $4.50 this summer, driving was down, people were taking less trips and driving/buying smaller cars. This is perhaps the best possible time to implement higher gasoline taxes: gas prices are at their lowest since 2002, we have an extremely popular incoming president, and many states face urgent budget crises. For the near future this solution remains politically untenable, even if we make it budget-neutral by rebating the tax to our poorest citizens, or using it to pay for mass transit.

Building more lanes on our highways would ease congestion, reduce pollution, save people time, and create new construction jobs. Roads are also the cheapest form of transportation to build, when you measure cost per passenger mile traveled, and thus will provide the most benefit for the stimulus dollar. Solar and wind energy are becoming cheaper, but are not cost-competitive yet, and will add to our total energy supply.

Cars are the dominant form of transportation in our society and will be for some time. Mass transit is well-meaning but limited to a small share of the population, outside of urban areas. Currently our nation's roads aren't wide enough for the amount of cars on the road.

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Fall 2008 Semester Review

I'm back home after ending my first semester at Claremont McKenna College. I was pretty unhappy on the drive home, but when I put the whole thing in perspective I think I had a great semester. You wish you could have had it. Positives: Social scientists and economists recently have made breakthroughs into learning what makes us happy, what makes us productive, and what attracts people to each other. Learning to use time efficiently, to avoid emotional rollercoasters, and to deal with people are probably more important than the academic material. In no particular order: I learned how to brew beer and started learning the tango, waltz and polka in two hours a week of dance instruction. We brewed three batches and I finished 5th place in an open tango competition. I learned how to use the weight room to become stronger and put on weight. I gained eleven pounds but stopped working out when finals approached and lost five. Good grades are the result of a good process, not any inherent measure of intelligence. Some things that helped me get good grades:
  • I kept organized for the whole semester. I wrote down due dates and appointments in a planner, and used it to plan out schedules of when I would get things done. I kept a binder for every class, with dividers for lecture notes, homework, handouts, and tests and essays.
  • With a few exceptions I didn't work for more than 2 hours at a time; when I wasn't getting work done I went to bed or did other things. I studied no more than 4 hours a day as finals approached, and scored above 95% on every exam, just by starting studying earlier and working efficiently.
  • I sat in the front row for every class. I would estimate staying organized is worth half a letter grade, and sitting in the front row is worth a quarter of a letter grade.
I aligned my desire to earn money with my desire for good work habits. When I wanted to ensure I got something done I would tell a friend I owed them a donation or a sandwich if I didn't finish an essay on time, or go to the gym. I also bet my parents that I would wear my retainer for 18 hours a day. The retainer makes me look and sound a little childish but it's straightening my teeth and I only have to wear it for half a year. These sort of bets are extremely cheap arbitrage - good grades and straight teeth are worth more later (in the job/marriage market) than they are now, so a small incentive now can pay big dividends later. Often these bets were win-win propositions - if I won I got my essay done on time, but if I lost I created a social opportunity, having to buy someone a sandwich. I tried out for, and failed to make, the varsity basketball team. I was in the gym for nearly three hours a day for the first six weeks of the semester, lifting, shooting, running sprints, and playing pickup against the other varsity players. I wanted to make the team so that I could have a group of friends, signal quality to others, compete every day, and improve my basketball skill. My fitness was excellent and I improved at defense, dribbling, and driving. Fortunately, by the time the tryout came around I had enough other things going on around campus that I was (I told myself, anyway) indifferent between making the team and getting cut. The coach wanted me to become a student manager but I refused - I am slowly learning that just because someone wants me to do something doesn't mean I have an obligation to do it. I would have probably accepted the offer a year ago. While I was trying out for the basketball team I was sober for six weeks. My mantra was constant competition; every time I saw a player drink I was winning. I learned for myself that the social benefit from alcohol is imaginary, and that having a good time is based more on your attitude than your state of inebriation. I maintained good spirits and a social attitude well into December, which I hadn't done in my previous semesters at college. I learned to be more careful about the signals I sent to others. Claremont McKenna's small campus was a big help. I couldn't help running into people that I knew. I tried to call friends ahead of time to get meals so I wouldn't eat alone, which worked when I remembered to do it. I did not waste too much time. I had a rule not to check my email or RSS before noon. I let feeds, emails, texts and friend requests accumulate, dealing with them in my own time, rather than read and respond instantly to everything. I started writing againafter two years of Penn lecture classes (Total writing output between May '07 and October '08: 2 crappy application essays). The only way to become good at something is to practice (with feedback) as much as you can. Writing is no exception; the more I write the easier it becomes to write. I blogged for my Gov 20 Honors class nearly every day, and when I started to get a "You should write about this!" thought bubble for non-political topics I revived my own blog. Every essay or short paper I write starts from an outline, which helped me stay focused and get work done. Negatives: The negatives are of the "idle Tuesday" variety and don't merit mention, which is something I've learned this semester too.

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Books I Read This Semester

Homer, The Iliad

Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America

The Federalist Papers

Don Norman, The Design of Everyday Things

Timothy Ferriss, The 4-Hour Work Week

Sophocles, Oedipus

Ian McEwan, Atonement

David Foster Wallace, Consider the Lobster and other essays

Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night's Dream

Tom Wolfe, I Am Charlotte Simmons

Ronald Brownstein, The Second Civil War: How Extreme Partisanship Has Paralyzed Washington and Polarized America

Samuel Huntington, Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity

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Predicting teacher quality

Malcolm Gladwell has a long article in New Yorker about problems schools face predicting which people will be good at teaching. In summary, teachers are the most important factor affecting student learning, more important than class size, or a "good" school vs a "bad" school. Schools can't predict which teachers will be good, but the current pay structure and tenure system makes it difficult to remove bad teachers and reward good ones, and as a result no one's really happy with school quality. Gladwell says we should open up the discipline to anybody who proves they're competent, and rework the pay schedules so that we can eliminate bad teachers more easily and keep the good ones.

My response is:

Duh!


Shout it from the rooftops, Malcolm! This set of conclusions must not be obvious to some people. Teacher quality matters. I spent four hours in the Dean of Faculty's office sorting through teacher evaluations, picking out the best teachers, because I want to make sure I get good teachers. I want to put those evaluations online for everyone to see, and why teacher's unions are pure evil and the main obstacle to school improvement today. School effectiveness is all about culling and removing bad teachers and giving the good ones bonuses to get them to stay. Bad teachers are cancerous parts of a school. They don't mean to be awful, but they are.

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Easiest to “make it” in which of the following fields?

Assuming you have enough qualifications to start at the entry level:

Writer
Basketball/other sport coach
Musician
Traditional career to CEO
Academic
Entrepreneur
Finance

Writing, music, and entrepreneurship are scalable at every level - pay is tied to output and demand, there's no billable "per hour" component. Beginning careerists, academics, Wall Street lifers and coaches are paid a fixed salary, but as people move up the ladder their salaries become more tied to output and less tied to a per-hour consideration.

In which fields are the skills necessary to be successful relevant to the material? For example, to become CEO you must master office politics, and to be a successful coach you have to be able to recruit players. I guess these are part of the job description in each case.

My initial reaction is that difficulty depends on two factors - the size of the field and the amount of luck required. It's difficult to be a lucky coach or a lucky academic, but extremely easy to be lucky in finance, almost as easy in music, a little harder in writing. There is also a political aspect - consider which fields we would expect someone's son or daughter to have a leg up on the competition.

Entrepreneurship may be the easiest but the perceived risk of entry is the highest.

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