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10 books that influenced me most

Jules Feiffer and Norton Juster, The Phantom Tollbooth – This was my favorite book growing up. I spent a lot of childhood trying to be creative and play with words in the same way they do in the book, efforts which weren’t entirely appreciated or understood by most of the people I hung around with, and wishing I could go through the tollbooth too. Maybe this book taught me to see things differently than everyone else.

Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, Freakonomics – If marijuana is a gateway drug, then Freakonomics is a gateway book. This was the first “adult” book I ever read, and I think I zoomed through it in about four hours one afternoon. Since then I’ve hardly read any fiction books. I credit Freaknomics with getting me excited about taking economics classes, which has prompted a rapid shift in my worldview since high school. I also credit the book for teaching me to think about ordinary events in terms of economics, and about the importance of separating correlation from causation. I also started reading RSS feeds, and blogging, shortly after reading Freakonomics.

Mark Haddon, The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time – This is a great story about an autistic kid navigating London from his mother’s house to his father’s. More importantly, for the first time I was able to relate parts of my personality to someone else; I could understand why the book’s narrator thought the way he did, why he felt the way he did around friends and family, and remember times when I’d had similar thoughts and acted out in similar ways. Obviously not to the same degree as the narrator, who once for example sat in the subway with his head in his hands for six hours, but in a small and important way.

Donald Norman, The Design of Everyday Things (more generally, the Signal vs. Noise and Alertbox blogs) – This book got me thinking about how things are designed, how form and function go together, and how you should be able to figure out how to use items just by looking at them. Like most people I hate products that aren’t usable and I hope to create usable products in the future. For the first time I started to understand the principles behind usability.

Tim Ferriss, The Four Hour Workweek – This is cliche but it’s more a book about how to live, and a way of looking at tasks, than it is about work. Ferriss’s whole goal is to teach people to separate inputs from outputs (40 hours of labor, a salary) and focus on getting the highest output from the lowest input (working 4 hours a week, sipping mai tais in Thailand). The most useful bits for me were the parts about how to get really good at something really quickly, and that the status quo bias is powerful; most people don’t want to increase their skill sets, or self-experiment. This book also got me interested in trying to travel as much as possible.

Neil Postman, Teaching as a Subversive Activity – In high school I had a few awful teachers, and other classes where I felt I was just spinning my wheels. This book was an eye-opener and gave me a new perspective on what it means to be a good teacher; your goal should be to question students, and force them to question their assumptions. Later I started to recognize the importance of teaching skills too; at some point you might have to teach calculus, or whatever.  I think I printed out copies of one of the chapters and put them in every faculty member’s mailbox. I need to reread this soon.

Strunk & White, The Elements of Style – Avoid using five words when two will do! This book is as a lifestyle guide as much as it is a book about editing. When in doubt, simplify. I struggle to cut long pieces down to short ones, and remove clutter from my life, but they are both admirable goals.

Bryan Caplan, The Myth of the Rational Voter – Suggesting that we can do better than democracy is pretty close to apostasy in modern American politics. However Bryan Caplan makes a convincing case that voters are not rational, and their mistakes don’t cancel out, mainly because they are uneducated about the logic behind things like productivity and immigration. This book started me thinking about the importance of making sure people understand economic principles, and generally that people are irrational, and our current setup might not be the best one we have.

Michael Lewis, Moneyball – I loved this book because I’m an A’s fan and also because I love the idea of crushing other people because you found a better way to do things. People say that Billy Beane was a fluke because now the A’s are bad. That’s stupid, because learning the A’s are bad is evidence that higher budget teams have caught on, and are starting to value players properly. I know Jeremy Brown was a bust but this is still a great teaching tool.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan – This book was pretty important in developing how I think about the financial markets. Taleb’s argument is that every few years an event comes along that models simply can’t predict, so most models are useless. Distributions of financial data are simply not normal. Let’s say 50 people are placed in a room; their heights should be distributed normally, but if one person is Bill Gates then the income distribution will be completely skewed. Also Taleb talks about scalable professions; even the best lawyer in the world is limited by how many hours he can bill, but the world’s best author can sell an infinite number of books, or the world’s best financier can make billions through smart trading.

Fictional books I’ve enjoyed reading: Harry Potter, Dune, the Redwall series, the Bible, Catcher in the Rye anything by Neal Stephenson. There are also a fair number of bloggers whose posts have been an influence, but we’re on the subject of books.

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Fonts of India

The painted typography here is beautiful. A large percentage of the hand-painted signs have excellent fonts and cool drop shadows or borders. Here are some examples:

noparking

purohit

carrier

white

lakeway

bank

As good as the painted signs are, the computerized/printed signs are bad. There’s a limited font range and the colors are just uglier.

chetak

khana

yellow

cycle

icecream

I’ll accept that for the target audience, the signal might be different: a printed sign might indicate prosperity or technological sophistication. But it’s a shame because the hand-painted ones are so pretty.

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Will America have to spend money to cut emissions? McKinsey says no

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This <a href=McKinsey Global Institute report from 2007 discusses the growth in US demand for energy. They collected a ton of data on how firms and consumers use energy around the world, and created a model of world demand for energy out to 2020. In line with this, they researched current best practices for energy efficiency around the world and described the gains that could be had if everyone upgraded to top-of-the-line equipment.The bottom line of their report is that cutting down on energy use and saving money go hand in hand. In the USA at least, we can have our cake and eat it, too. Purchasing new energy products often provides a return of 10% or more on investment. The report states that if consumers switched to the latest major applicances, upgraded their heating and cooling systems (installing high-efficiency heat pumps, more insulation, and/or switching to water heating), installed compact fluorescent lighting, and had small appliances switch to standby, they could enjoy significant savings on their energy bill. There are pennies on the ground here; why aren't they being picked up? Everyone likes saving money but the returns to investing in new appliances might not be completely clear. For one thing, utility bills don't provide any data to consumers that would help them cut down on energy use. Furthermore, utilities don't have much of an incentive to get consumers to use less energy; as public companies, more energy means more revenue and bigger budgets. Furthermore, people and firms move from place to place, so it might not make sense to invest in a new fridge, for example, if you think you are going to move in less than a year. I'm encouraged that most of the savings in the report are possible through the positive-IRR decisions of firms and consumers, and that they don't require a government subsidy. Methodology: I'm concerned about how they estimated consumer and firm current energy demand and the returns to investing in top-of-the-line equipment. On aggregate across all households, the IRR from upgrading all of your household appliances might be very high. But it may be the case that some houses have an IRR of 30% or more and most have an IRR of about 5%, in which case they might not want to invest in new energy technology, especially if they're planning on selling the house soon. On the whole, however, their estimates are probably biased low. They estimated a base case of $50/barrel for oil, which David Rutledge and I think is unrealistic. They also described best energy practices circa 2007, whereas the technology is bound to improve vastly over the course of thirteen years. Business Opportunity: There are clearly pennies on the ground here. I'm wondering why firms aren't going around offering consumers free or discounted new appliances in exchange for a cut of the savings on their energy bill. Maybe there are firms doing this and I'm not aware of them, because I don't pay an energy bill. Most firms that I know are focused more on sexier green products, like solar power. For someone who laments people who discuss global warming and possible solutions without including any sort of cost/benefit analysis, this report is helpful. The data in the report is edifying, providing breakdowns of energy use across the economy, and the predicted growth in each field.

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Soyabean curry

Soyabean Curry for 4. This is a pretty simple recipe: Ingredients: 75x grams rice 25x grams soyabean 1/4x onion 1/2x tomatoes 1/2x chillies 1/4x garlic Garam Masala, chilli powder, turmeric, coriander Steps: Wash all the vegetables Chop the onion Chop the tomatoes Chop the chillies Wash out the rice and add to the pot, let boil for 20 min or so (pressure cooker is useful for this) Add oil, salt, onions, chillies to the wok, stir till the onions are brown After about 5 mins add the spices After 2-3 minutes add the tomatoes, and some water Stir for a while Let it sit for a while Enjoy! Here's the final result. The power went out, but the gas still worked, so I put on a headlight and powered through: curry Yum!

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The future will look like this:

The Singularity is an event, predicted by AI researchers, when computers will be able to write programs to improve themselves. They'll soon be able to exponentially increase their intelligence and ability, so that the difference in intelligence between human and computer is far wider than the difference between the smartest human and the dumbest human. Here's an example from music, where a UCSC professor wrote a program to churn out Bach music:
Finally, Cope’s program could divine what made Bach sound like Bach and create music in that style. It broke rules just as Bach had broken them, and made the result sound musical. It was as if the software had somehow captured Bach’s spirit — and it performed just as well in producing new Mozart compositions and Shakespeare sonnets. One afternoon, a few years after he’d begun work on Emmy, Cope clicked a button and went out for a sandwich, and she spit out 5,000 beautiful, artificial Bach chorales, work that would’ve taken him several lifetimes to produce by hand.
Producing 5,000 world-class symphonies in an afternoon sounds right. H/t Jason Kottke.

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How to sell things to tourists

Companies catering to tourists are in a unique situation; they're competing in a one-off game with tens or hundreds of other firms, where the consumer has limited information about the quality of the firm. What signals are likely to be credible in this situation? I think that these places can do some work to set themselves apart and attract business. From worst to best:
Superlatives/claims: You would have to be a gullible tourist indeed to believe a place is "the best restaurant in Nainital," or a "fair price shop." Anything a tourist company says is not really credible, especially when it's not (and really can't be) backed up by a guarantee or refund.
Weak affiliations: By this I mean places that call themselves Tourist Hotel, India Hotel, Hotel of Nainital" etc. This is just above meaningless, because the signal's so cheap.
Logos/External Appearance: This seems like it would be relatively cheap to paint your walls, afford a decent looking logo, a consistent color scheme and an inviting lobby/waiting area. I'm compiling a photo series to show off later, but the hand-painted signs and logos in India are beautiful and the printed signs look like stuff I used to make on PageMaker 5 when I was in 4th grade. Investing in your external appearance signals to tourists that your hotel or restaurant is trustworthy.
Location: This is the main money-maker today; placement along the main tourist drag signals trustworthiness. Tourists are also lazy, or have large bags and can't be bothered to walk all over town searching for the best value for their money. However the returns relative to the rents you have to pay to locate along the main drag might not make it the most profitable.
Making your prices public: Let's face it, some people are willing to pay a slight premium in exchange for the knowledge they're not getting completely ripped off. As a white person, I'm an obvious target for extortion; but if a firm publicly lists their prices then I know that they're the same for everyone. Establishments would lose out on the knowledgeable tourists but they would probably get more than enough traffic from the people who don't know anything about local prices. Restaurants do this, but some have a tourist (or English) menu and a local menu, too.
Advertising: The necessity of advertising, especially for firms with a poor location, is obvious.
Recommendation from a guidebook: The guidebook probably picks tourist establishments at a rate of one out of every twenty hotels and restaurants and two of every three attractions (boat rides, museums, etc). Just getting mentioned in a guidebook gives you a headstart over every other establishment. Maybe places court guidebooks like Lonely Planet (those that get in sure do advertise it, and, I'm guessing, get a bump in traffic); if they don't, they sure should.
Strong affiliation: I'm talking about consumer brands, like McDonalds, Marriott, Super 8 or similar. Especially when there are no other brands to compete with, this should give an establishment a HUGE advantage. Furthermore what's stopping an establishment from establishing a brand? Let's say I own a hotel in Udaipur. Two of the likely next stops are in Jodhpur and Jaisalmer; why don't I call up hotels in those towns, agree to cooperate and then change our names so something distinct? Then the (word for cactus) Hotels have created a brand, without anything more than a sign change. Assuming you have a positive experience, which can be easily reinforced by unannounced hotel inspections, someone who stays at one is more likely to stay at the same place in a different city, and your profits increase.
Tourists are desperate to find anything they can trust, and firms selling to tourists should do more experimentation with the signals they display. I think most of them could draw more traffic with some simple changes.

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Theory of garbage

As you may be aware, India is full of trash; when you're finished unwrapping something you simply throw it out the window or discard it in the nearest gutter. It looks like there are two equilibria here: one where everyone litters and one where only a few people do. The amount of litter here is astonishing and it's taken me a month to get used to just dropping things whenever I'm finished with them (don't get me started on "Be the change:" this problem's bigger than me and I use trash bins when they're around. Most of the trash here is simply burned, after it's been picked through by dogs and cows (have only seen a few people digging through the trash here; there aren't any giant piles of trash). Shop owners keep the areas in front of their shops clean, but the same can't be said of houses; there are some really nice houses behind Vidya Bhawan that have ugly, dirty streets. There are clear public benefits to responsible disposal of trash; property values rise, the air's less polluted (and less smelly). Furthermore if I'm disposing trash on your property and you're picking it up and putting it back on mine we're both wasting time. But most people in the West pay for garbage disposal, not the other way around. When did we move to this equilibrium? I'm pretty sure social approval, and maybe littering laws, are the driver behind the no-litter equilibrium; what's to stop someone from just dumping their trash in the middle of the night? The only successful ad campaign I can think of in this area is the "Don't Mess with Texas" campaign, which was hugely successful in cutting down on highway littering. The amount of littering I do depends on how much littering I think you're doing as well as the convenience of disposing of it. It's possible that rising incomes won't solve this problem, as it's a collective action issue. Homeowners associations and malls might be able to solve it, and shop owners can keep their shops clean but I doubt there will be much change otherwise.

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Five types of shitty question askers

Tyler Cowen blogged about this today, so I better publish this piece, which I wrote two months ago, when I was really fed up with bad question askers after the ITAB trip, but it never made its way onto the Forum. Here it is, verbatim. Five Types of Question Askers to Avoid Kevin Burke Pot, meet kettle:
  • The person who just wants the speaker to confirm something that they already believe. You can tell this type because they ask leading yes or no questions. "Do you believe that global warming is going to destroy our way of living?"
  • The person who just wants to show off how much they know to everyone else. You can tell this type because they start off their question talking about something they did last year, or by mentioning some news story or obscure point. When there are only two people left in the room who are paying attention to the answer, this question asker has done their job. "I did a research project on abortions in China last year, and I just wanted to know what you think is going to happen when the policy in Sichuan province changes next year," or "I traveled to your native country last year, and had the chance to meet rural politician X, what do you think him?"
  • The question rambler. In the face of silence, many people become nervous and feel the need to continue speaking. They ask a perfectly good question, then try to justify the question and discuss what they think, then discuss what they think the speaker will say, with a few "um"s sprinkled in for good measure, until she's been speaking for a minute or more and the speaker is confused.
  • The activist who launches into a three minute long diatribe, which the speaker won't touch because it would force her to accept the activist's false premise. These come in two flavors: the disjointed activist who has spent his fair share of time wearing a sandwich board and standing on the corner of Telegraph and Bancroft, and the kind who are generally in tune with "Barack Obama is a Muslim who is working with the Islamic high command. In three days he's going to suspend the government and turn everything over to the Saudi's. How do you plan to respond?"
  • The person who asks a factual question that has an easy answer on Wikipedia, or in the syllabus. Usually, this question asker steps forward when everyone's packing up their things and the teacher asks, "Are there any more questions?"
Fortunately, there are good remedies for these types of dumb questions. The first one is to raise the price of asking a question. Because you're using everyone's time by asking one, asking a question generates a negative externality, so charging $1 per question is not unreasonable. If $1 is steep, pool together money with people at your table. Since you're using their time by asking the question, if they don't want to contribute money to hear the answer that's probably a good sign that your question's not very good. We can also remove the ability of people to signal when they ask questions by having everyone who wants to ask a question write it down and then pass their question two to three seats to the left. Alternatively, we can present all questions to the speaker, and ask the speaker to answer the ones he or she feels like answering. Furthermore, if you're ever up in front of an audience and someone asks a bad question, be polite, but curt.

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How to choose where to eat in an unfamiliar city

When I'm in a foreign city I use these proxies to find a place to eat:
No outside advertising in English: +1 point. Generally, ads in English mean a place is catering to tourists, and thus likely to try and steer me to the non-spicy items, etc.
More than half full with locals: +3 points. This is great as well because then I can just look around and order whatever everyone else is having.
More than half full with tourists: -2 points. I know I talk a lot about signaling, but this is really more for spice, quality and price reasons, not "I want to be different than the crowd" reasons.
The restaurant serves only one item: +3 points. If you serve only one item it has to be at least decent, or you'll go out of business. Furthermore this removes any ambiguity over what to order, and increases the speed with which you're served.
The restaurant's located on the main tourist drag: -3 points: If the rents are high, it'll have to serve everyone, and cater to the lowest common denominator.
The restaurant's in a guidebook: +1 point, although this one's harder to evaluate; I'm not sure what criteria they're using, and their recommendations might be good within each price range. The guidebooks are more likely to recommend places along the main tourist walk.
Unfortunately, saying "Just bring me something good, and spicy" doesn't work too well. When I was in Nainital, I went to two different places a night; it's too cheap not to. I'm looking for suggestions.

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How to get tons of reading done

I'm about to finish my fifth book in 5 weeks (What Works in Development? edited by Bill Easterly and Jessica Cohen), in addition to reading a higher number of academic papers and the same number of RSS feeds that I usually read. There are a few good reasons for this:
1) Amazon Kindle app for iPhone: I read on the largest possible font, so there are only two or three sentences on the page at a time. The relevant unit of accomplishment is flipping this (small) page, so I can read a little or a lot and still feel like I'm getting reading done. Furthermore, with this small screen I don't skip text and backtrack nearly as much as I do when I'm reading paper. Reading on a digital screen makes me less sleepy. There also aren't any distractions, like my phone is when I'm reading a paper book.
Another nice thing about the Kindle is links within the book. I read more footnotes because you can skip easily to the footnotes and back to the main text by touching the screen. This is something that's even easier to do on the iPhone than on the Kindle.
On a side note, I've purchased books for the first time in almost two years; it's impossible to get paper copies of the books I'd like to read while I'm here.
2) No Internet at home: I've had tons of experience dealing with this one; queue up a whole bunch of tabs, print out PDFs of each page and save them to a flash drive. In addition to saving time surfing (no actual reading time,just deciding whether or not to read things later), I finish a higher percentage of my reading and I'm not as distracted because there's no information coming in, like new RSS feeds or email/text messages. Any links I open from stories I've just read get saved with a "Unable to load page" page in Chrome; the next time I get on a wireless connection these open automatically. Same goes with emails, which I compose and then sit in my outbox for days at a time.
3) More free time. Everyone says that liberal arts schools 'teach you how to think' but also stress the irrelevance of the course material. Classes are a distraction; most of the reading is stuff that isn't too helpful.
In short, I'm enjoying higher productivity now but all three of these are going to disappear once I get home; I won't read on my phone when I can get free books from the library, I struggle to shut off the Internet voluntarily and next semester I'll have thesis and job applications in addition to coursework. I'm not optimistic about maintaining this high level of productivity.

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