Common statistical fallacies, Kyoto Protocol edition

kyoto-chart Ezra Klein links to the above chart and states that this is proof that the Kyoto agreement is working. This is not accurate. To show that the Kyoto protocol is working, we'd have to estimate a country's hypothetical pollution if they signed the agreement vs. their pollution for not signing the agreement. I would guess that the countries who estimated that their pollution was likely to fall (countries transitioning from manufacturing economies to service economies) would be the most likely to sign on, as it doesn't cost them anything extra to do so. I would also guess that the countries that signed on have the most incentive to mess with their emissions figures. It's possible that the Kyoto protocols succeeded but I don't see it from this graph.

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