What can we predict about the future?

In no particular order: 1) Government intervention tends to have negative consequences for society as a whole. 2) The best predictor of what will happen next time is often what happened last time. 3) Heuristics (knowing too much) tend to make us worse predictors. The classic example of this is the study where German students were asked whether San Diego or San Antonio is bigger. I'm not convinced about that one statistic proving a general rule, but I'm convinced about the rule. 4) Over time, we'll become less mad about people who have aggrieved us. We'll also recover from the loss of loved ones. 5) We will change our minds; conclusions ("leverage is a bad idea") will seem obvious, even though they weren't at the time. 6) One of my favorite movie scenes is in American Beauty, when Ricky asks his dad, "Whats going on in the world, Dad?" and Chris Cooper puts down his newspaper and says "Son, this country's going straight to hell." I feel like people have always said this and will always continue to say it. In my worst liberal days in high school I believed it. The world tends to do all right though. 7) If someone practices a particular skill, with persistence and deliberate feedback, after a while they'll improve.

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